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Geopolitics·China

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

22% chance
▲ 0%
$290.15 Vol.Dec 31, 2027
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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CategoryGeopolitics
SettlementOn-chain Conditional Tokens
OpenedJul 31, 2026, 2:47 AM
Condition0x60fbe730…fa51c1
Exchange Conditional Tokens

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Yes
Amount$0.00 cash
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To win $454.55
Avg. Price22¢

Partial fill: only 454.55 shares execute.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" is a geopolitics prediction market on CHOK where traders buy Yes or No shares based on how likely they think the outcome is. The market price reflects the crowd's probability estimate in real time, and each share settles for $1 if correct or $0 if not.