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Geopolitics·Military Strikes

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

60% chance
▲ 0%
$10.2K Vol.Dec 31, 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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CategoryGeopolitics
SettlementOn-chain Conditional Tokens
OpenedJul 31, 2026, 2:46 AM
Condition0xf312b7e2…9af5f9
Exchange Conditional Tokens

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Yes
Amount$0.00 cash
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To win $166.67
Avg. Price60¢

Partial fill: only 166.67 shares execute.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is a geopolitics prediction market on CHOK where traders buy Yes or No shares based on how likely they think the outcome is. The market price reflects the crowd's probability estimate in real time, and each share settles for $1 if correct or $0 if not.